Use of wastewater metrics to track COVID-19 in the U.S.: a national time-series analysis over the first three quarters of 2022 (preprint)

Background: Widespread use of at-home COVID-19 tests hampers determination of community COVID-19 incidence. Using nationwide data available through the US National Wastewater Surveillance System, we examined the performance of two wastewater metrics in predicting high case and hospitalizations rates both before and after widespread use of at-home tests. Methods: We performed area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis (AUC) for two wastewater metrics- viral concentration relative to the peak of January 2022 ('wastewater percentile') and 15-day percent change in SARS-CoV-2 ('percent change'). Dichotomized reported cases (equal to or greater than 200 or <200 cases per 100,000) and new hospitalizations (equal to or greater than 10 or <10 per 100,000) were our dependent variables, stratified by calendar quarter. Using logistic regression, we assessed the performance of combining wastewater metrics. Results: Among 268 counties across 22 states, wastewater percentile detected high reported case and hospitalizations rates in the first quarter of 2022 (AUC 0.95 and 0.86 respectively) whereas the percent change did not (AUC 0.54 and 0.49 respectively). A wastewater percentile of 51% maximized sensitivity (0.93) and specificity (0.82) for detecting high case rates. A model inclusive of both metrics performed no better than using wastewater percentile alone. The predictive capability of wastewater percentile declined over time (AUC 0.84 and 0.72 for cases for second and third quarters of 2022). Conclusion: Nationwide, county wastewater levels above 51% relative to the historic peak predicted high COVID rates and hospitalization in the first quarter of 2022, but performed less well in subsequent quarters. Decline over time in predictive performance of this metric likely reflects underreporting of cases, reduced testing, and possibly lower virulence of infection due to vaccines and treatments.

Recruitment into antibody prevalence studies: a randomized trial of postcards vs. letters as invitations (preprint)

Background In a potential epidemic of an emerging infection, representative population-based serologic studies are required to determine the extent of immunity to the infectious agent, either from natural infection or vaccination. Recruitment strategies need to optimize response rates.Methods Within a seroepidemiologic study to determine the true burden of SARS-CoV2 infection in two Bay Area counties, we evaluated whether letter (L) or postcard (P) invitations with reminders were more effective at recruiting participant households. Using geographic, probability-based sampling, 9,999 representative addresses, split between Santa Clara and Solano counties, were randomized to receive an initial invitation (L or P); a randomized reminder mailing sent two weeks later to all non-respondents created four mailing type groups (L/L, L/P, P/L, P/P). Interested households provided contact information via survey to perform blood spot collection at home for testing and then receive SARS-CoV2 serology results. Comparison of demographics among respondents and non-respondents used census tract data.Results Receiving any reminder mailing increased household response rates from 4.2% to between 8–13% depending on mailing combination. Response rates from two letters were 71% higher than from two postcards (13.2% vs. 7.7%, OR = 1.83 [95% CI: 1.5–2.2]). Respondents were older, more educated and more likely white than non-respondents. Compared to Solano county, Santa Clara county had different demographics and increased household response rates (L/L: 15.7% vs 10.7%; P/P: 9.2% vs. 6.1%; p < 0.0001); the effect of mailing types, however, was the same (L/L vs. P/P: Santa Clara: OR = 1.83 [95% CI: 1.4–2.3]; Solano: OR = 1.84 [95% CI:1.4–2.5]).Conclusion Letters, as both invitations and reminders, are more effective recruitment tools than postcards and should be considered when seeking a representative population-based sample for serological testing.

SARS-CoV-2 infection during the Omicron surge among patients receiving dialysis: the role of circulating receptor-binding domain antibodies and vaccine doses (preprint)

Background It is unclear whether a third dose of mRNA platform vaccines, or antibody response to prior infection or vaccination confer protection from the Omicron variant among patients receiving dialysis. Methods Monthly since February 2021, we tested plasma from 4,697 patients receiving dialysis for antibodies to the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2. We assessed semiquantitative median IgG index values over time among patients vaccinated with at least one dose of the two mRNA vaccines. We ascertained documented COVID-19 diagnoses after December 25, 2021 and up to January 31, 2022. We estimated the relative risk for documented SARS-CoV-2 infection by vaccination status using a log-binomial model accounting for age, sex, and prior clinical COVID-19. Among patients with RBD IgG index value available during December 1-December 24, 2021, we also evaluated the association between the circulating RBD IgG titer and risk for Omicron variant SARS-CoV-2 infection. Results Of the 4,697 patients we followed with monthly RBD assays, 3576 are included in the main analysis cohort; among these, 852 (24%) were unvaccinated. Antibody response to third doses was robust (median peak index IgG value at assay limit of 150, equivalent to 3270 binding antibody units/mL). Between December 25-January 1, 2022, SARS-CoV-2 infection was documented 340 patients (7%), 115 (36%) of whom were hospitalized. The final doses of vaccines were given a median of 272 (25th, 75th percentile, 245-303) days and 58 (25th, 75th percentile, 51-95) days prior to infection for the 1-2 dose and 3 dose vaccine groups respectively. Relative risks for infection were higher among patients without vaccination (RR 2.1 [95%CI 1.6, 2.8]), and patients with 1-2 doses (RR 1.3 [95%CI 1.0, 1.8]), compared with patients with three doses of the mRNA vaccines. Relative risks for infection were higher among patients with RBD index values < 23 (506 BAU/mL), compared with RBD index value [≥] 23 (RR 2.4 [95%CI 1.9, 3.0]). The higher risk for infection among patients with RBD index values < 23 was present among patients who received three doses (RR 2.1 [95%CI 1.3, 3.4]). Conclusions Among patients receiving hemodialysis, patients unvaccinated, without a third mRNA vaccine dose, or those lacking robust circulating antibody response are at higher risk for Omicron variant infection. Low circulating antibodies could identify the subgroup needing intensified surveillance, prophylaxis or treatment in this patient population.

TNFα-producing CD4+ T cells dominate the SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell response in COVID-19 outpatients and are associated with durable antibodies (preprint)

SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ T cells are likely important in immunity against COVID-19, but our understanding of CD4+ longitudinal dynamics following infection and specific features that correlate with the maintenance of neutralizing antibodies remains limited. We characterized SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ T cells in a longitudinal cohort of 109 COVID-19 outpatients. The quality of the SARS-CoV-2-specific CD4+ response shifted from cells producing IFN{gamma} to TNF+ from five days to four months post-enrollment, with IFN{gamma}-IL21-TNF+ CD4+ T cells the predominant population detected at later timepoints. Greater percentages of IFN{gamma}-IL21-TNF+ CD4+ T cells on day 28 correlated with SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies measured seven months post-infection ({rho}=0.4, P=0.01). mRNA vaccination following SARS-CoV-2 infection boosted both IFN{gamma} and TNF producing, spike protein-specific CD4+ T cells. These data suggest that SARS-CoV-2-specific, TNF-producing CD4+ T cells may play an important role in antibody maintenance following COVID-19.

CalScope: Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence from Vaccination and Prior Infection in Adults and Children in California May 2021– July 2021 (preprint)

ABSTRACT Importance Understanding how SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence varies regionally across California is critical to the public health response to the pandemic. Objective To estimate how many Californians have antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 from prior infection or vaccination. Design Wave 1 of CalScope: a repeated cross-sectional serosurvey of adults and children enrolled between April 20, 2021 and June 16, 2021. Setting A population-based random sample of households in seven counties in California (Alameda, El Dorado, Kern, Los Angeles, Monterey, San Diego, and Shasta) were invited to complete an at-home SARS-CoV-2 antibody test and survey instrument. Participants Invitations were sent to 200,000 randomly selected households in the seven counties. From each household, 1 adult (18 years and older) and 1 child (aged 6 months to 17 years) could enroll in the study. There were no exclusion criteria. Main Outcome(s) and Measures All specimens were tested for antibodies against the nucleocapsid and spike proteins of SARS-CoV-2. The primary outcome was serostatus category, which was determined based on antibody test results and self-reported vaccination status: seronegative, antibodies from infection only, antibodies from infection and vaccination, and antibodies from vaccination alone. We used inverse probability of selection weights and iterative proportional fitting to account for non-response. Results 11,161 households enrolled in wave 1 of CalScope, with 7,483 adults and 1,375 children completing antibody testing. As of June 2021, 27% (95%CI [23%, 31%]) of adults and 30% (95%CI [24%, 36%]) of children had evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection; 33% (95%CI [28%, 37%]) of adults and 57% (95%CI [48%, 66%]) of children were seronegative. Serostatus varied regionally. Californians 65 years or older were most likely to have antibodies from vaccine alone (59%; 95%CI [48%, 69%]) and children between 5-11 years old were most likely to have antibodies from prior infection alone (36%; 95%CI [21%, 52%]). Conclusions and Relevance As of June 2021, a third of adults in California and most children under 18 remained seronegative. Seroprevalence varied regionally and by demographic group, suggesting that some regions or populations might remain more vulnerable to subsequent surges than others. Key Points Question What is the prevalence of vaccine and infection derived antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in adults and children in California? Findings In this population-based serosurvey that included 11,161 households, as of June 2021, 33% of adults and 57% of children were seronegative; 18% of adults and 26% of children had antibodies from infection alone; 9% of adults and 5% of children had antibodies from both infection and vaccination; and 41% of adults and 13% of children had antibodies from vaccination alone. Meaning Serostatus varied considerably across geographic regions, suggesting that certain areas might be at increased risk for future COVID-19 surges.

Favipiravir for treatment of outpatients with asymptomatic or uncomplicated COVID-19: a double-blind randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial (preprint)

Background Favipiravir is an oral, RNA-dependent RNA polymerase inhibitor with in vitro activity against SARS-CoV2. Despite limited data, favipiravir is administered to patients with COVID-19 in several countries. Methods We conducted a phase 2 double-blind randomized controlled outpatient trial of favipiravir in asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic adults with a positive SARS-CoV2 RT-PCR within 72 hours of enrollment. Participants were randomized 1:1 to receive placebo or favipiravir (1800 mg BID Day 1, 800mg BID Days 2-10). The primary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 shedding cessation in a modified intention-to-treat (mITT) cohort of participants with positive enrollment RT-PCRs. Using SARS-CoV-2 deep sequencing, we assessed favipiravir’s impact on mutagenesis. Results From July 8, 2020 - March 23, 2021, we randomized 149 participants with 116 included in the mITT cohort. The participants’ mean age was 43 years (SD 12.5) and 57 (49%) were women. We found no difference in time to shedding cessation by treatment arm overall (HR 0.76 favoring placebo, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.48 – 1.20) or in sub-group analyses (age, sex, high-risk comorbidities, seropositivity or symptom duration at enrollment). We observed no difference in time to symptom resolution (initial: HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.54 – 1.29; sustained: HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.52 – 1.45). We detected no difference in accumulation of transition mutations in the viral genome during treatment. Conclusions Our data do not support favipiravir use at commonly used doses in outpatients with uncomplicated COVID-19. Further research is needed to ascertain if higher doses of favipiravir are effective and safe for patients with COVID-19. Trial registration number NCT04346628 Summary In this phase 2 double-blind randomized controlled outpatient trial of favipiravir in asymptomatic or uncomplicated patients with COVID-19, we found no difference in time to shedding cessation or time to symptom resolution by treatment arm.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine antibody response and breakthrough infections in patients receiving dialysis (preprint)

Background: Patients receiving dialysis are a sentinel population for groups at high risk for death and disability from COVID-19. Understanding correlates of protection post-vaccination can inform immunization and mitigation strategies. Methods: Monthly since January 2021, we tested plasma from 4791 patients receiving dialysis for antibodies to the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of SARS-CoV-2 using a high-throughput assay. We qualitatively assessed the proportion without a detectable RBD response and among those with a response, semiquantitative median IgG index values. Using a nested case-control design, we matched each breakthrough case to five controls by age, sex, and vaccination-month to determine whether peak and pre-breakthrough RBD IgG index values were associated with risk for infection post-vaccination. Results: Among 2563 vaccinated patients, the proportion without a detectable RBD response increased from 6.6% [95% CI 5.5-8.1] in 14-30 days post-vaccination to 20.2% [95% CI 17.1-23.8], and median index values declined from 92.7 (95% CI 77.8-107.5) to 3.7 (95% CI 3.1-4.3) after 5 months. Persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection prior-to-vaccination had higher peak index values than persons without prior infection, but values equalized by 5 months (p=0.230). Breakthrough infections occurred in 56 patients, with samples collected a median of 21 days pre-breakthrough. Peak and pre-breakthrough RBD values <23 (equivalent to <506 WHO BAU/mL) were associated with higher odds for breakthrough infection (OR: 3.7 [95% CI 2.0-6.8] and 9.8 [95% CI 2.9-32.8], respectively). Conclusions: The antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination wanes rapidly, and in persons receiving dialysis, the persisting antibody response is associated with risk for breakthrough infection.

Long Term Accuracy of SARS-CoV-2 Interferon-γ Release Assay and its Application in Household Investigation (preprint)

BackgroundAn immunodiagnostic assay that sensitively detects a cell-mediated immune response to SARS-CoV-2 is needed for epidemiological investigation and for clinical assessment of T cell-mediated immune response to vaccines, particularly in the context of emerging variants that might escape antibody responses. MethodsThe performance of a whole blood interferon-gamma (IFN-{gamma}) release assay (IGRA) for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 antigen-specific CD4 and CD8 T cells was evaluated in COVID-19 convalescents tested serially up to 10 months post-infection and in healthy blood donors. SARS-CoV-2 IGRA was applied in contacts of households with index cases. Freshly collected blood in the lithium heparin tube was left unstimulated, stimulated with a SARS-CoV-2 peptide pool, and stimulated with mitogen. ResultsThe overall sensitivity and specificity of IGRA were 84.5% (153/181; 95% confidence interval [CI] 79.0-89.0) and 86.6% (123/142; 95% CI;80.0-91.2), respectively. The sensitivity declined from 100% (16/16; 95% CI 80.6-100) at 0.5-month post-infection to 79.5% (31/39; 95% CI 64.4-89.2) at 10 months post-infection (P<0.01). The IFN-{gamma} response remained relatively robust at 10 months post-infection (3.8 vs. 1.3 IU/mL, respectively). In 14 households, IGRA showed a positivity rate of 100% (12/12) and 65.2% (15/23), and IgG of 50.0% (6/12) and 43.5% (10/23) in index cases and contacts, respectively, exhibiting a difference of +50% (95% CI +25.4-+74.6) and +21.7% (95% CI, +9.23-+42.3), respectively. Either IGRA or IgG was positive in 100% (12/12) of index cases and 73.9% (17/23) of contacts. ConclusionsThe SARS-CoV-2 IGRA is a useful clinical diagnostic tool for assessing cell-mediated immune response to SARS-CoV-2. Key pointsSARS-CoV-2 immunodiagnostics are needed to identify infected individuals in order to understand the transmission dynamics of emerging variants and to assess vaccine response. Interferon-gamma release assay maintains sensitivity 10 months post-infection in convalescents and detects more household contacts than IgG.

Early immune responses have long-term associations with clinical, virologic, and immunologic outcomes in patients with COVID-19 (preprint)

The great majority of SARS-CoV-2 infections are mild and uncomplicated, but some individuals with initially mild COVID-19 progressively develop more severe symptoms. Furthermore, mild to moderate infections are an important contributor to ongoing transmission. There remains a critical need to identify host immune biomarkers predictive of clinical and virologic outcomes in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. Leveraging longitudinal samples and data from a clinical trial of Peginterferon Lambda for treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infected outpatients, we used host proteomics and transcriptomics to characterize the trajectory of the immune response in COVID-19 patients within the first 2 weeks of symptom onset. We define early immune signatures, including plasma levels of RIG-I and the CCR2 ligands (MCP1, MCP2 and MCP3), associated with control of oropharyngeal viral load, the degree of symptom severity, and immune memory (including SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses and spike (S) protein-binding IgG levels). We found that individuals receiving BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) vaccine had similar early immune trajectories to those observed in this natural infection cohort, including the induction of both inflammatory cytokines (e.g. MCP1) and negative immune regulators (e.g. TWEAK). Finally, we demonstrate that machine learning models using 8-10 plasma protein markers measured early within the course of infection are able to accurately predict symptom severity, T cell memory, and the antibody response post-infection.

Early immune responses have long-term associations with clinical, virologic, and immunologic outcomes in patients with COVID-19 (preprint)

The great majority of SARS-CoV-2 infections are mild and uncomplicated, but some individuals with initially mild COVID-19 progressively develop more severe symptoms. Furthermore, there is substantial heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2-specific memory immune responses following infection. There remains a critical need to identify host immune biomarkers predictive of clinical and immunologic outcomes in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. Leveraging longitudinal samples and data from a clinical trial in SARS-CoV-2 infected outpatients, we used host proteomics and transcriptomics to characterize the trajectory of the immune response in COVID-19 patients within the first 2 weeks of symptom onset. We identify early immune signatures, including plasma RIG-I levels, early interferon signaling, and related cytokines (CXCL10, MCP1, MCP-2 and MCP-3) associated with subsequent disease progression, control of viral shedding, and the SARS-CoV-2 specific T cell and antibody response measured up to 7 months after enrollment. We found that several biomarkers for immunological outcomes are shared between individuals receiving BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech) vaccine and COVID-19 patients. Finally, we demonstrate that machine learning models using 7-10 plasma protein markers measured early within the course of infection are able to accurately predict disease progression, T cell memory, and the antibody response post-infection in a second, independent dataset.

COVID19 vaccine type and humoral immune response in patients receiving dialysis (preprint)

BackgroundPatients on dialysis vaccinated with the attenuated adenovirus SARS-CoV-2 vaccine might mount an impaired response to vaccination. MethodsWe evaluated the humoral vaccination response among 2,099 fully vaccinated patients receiving dialysis. We used commercially available assays (Siemens) to assess prevalence of no response or diminished response to COVID-19 vaccination by vaccine type. We defined "no seroconversion" as lack of change from negative to positive in total RBD Ig antibody, no detectable response on semiquantitative RBD IgG antibody (index value <1) as "no RBD IgG response", and a semiquantitative RBD IgG index value <10 as "diminished RBD IgG response" ResultsOf the 2,099 fully vaccinated patients on dialysis, the proportion receiving the mRNA1273, BNT162b2, and Ad26.COV2.S were 62% (n=1316), 20% (n=416) and 18% (n=367), respectively. A third (33.3%) of patients receiving the attenuated adenovirus Ad26.COV2.S vaccine failed to seroconvert and an additional 36% had no detectable or diminished IgG response even 28-60 days post vaccination. ConclusionOne in three fully vaccinated patients receiving dialysis had evidence of an impaired immune response to the attenuated adenovirus Ad26.COV2.S vaccine.

Antibody Response to COVID-19 vaccination in Patients Receiving Dialysis (preprint)

Background Patients receiving dialysis may mount impaired responses to COVID19 vaccination. Methods We report antibody response to vaccination from 1140 patients without, and 493 patients with pre-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 RBD antibody. We used commercially available assays (Siemens) to test remainder plasma monthly in association with vaccination date and type, and assess prevalence of absent total receptor binding antibody, and absent or attenuated (index value < 10) semiquantitative receptor binding domain IgG index values. We used Poisson regression to evaluate risk factors for absent or attenuated response to vaccination. Results Among patients who were seronegative versus seropositive before vaccination, 62% and 56% were ≥65 years old, 20% and 24% were Hispanic, and 22% and 23% were Black. Median IgG index values rose steadily over time, and were higher among the seropositive than in the seronegative patients after completing vaccination (150 [25 th , 75 th percentile 23.2, 150.0] versus 41.6 [11.3, 150.0]). Among 610 patients who completed vaccination (assessed ≥14 days later, median 29 days later), the prevalence of absent total RBD response, and absent and attenuated semiquantitative IgG response was 4.4% (95% CI 3.1, 6.4%), 3.4% (2.4, 5.2%), and 14.3% (11.7, 17.3%) respectively. Risk factors for absent or attenuated response included longer vintage of end-stage kidney disease, and lower pre-vaccination serum albumin. Conclusions More than one in five patients receiving dialysis had evidence of an attenuated immune response to COVID19 vaccination. Significance statement Patients receiving dialysis face high likelihood of severe COVID19; at the same time, vaccination may be less efficacious, as prior data indicate impaired immune responses to influenza and Hepatitis B vaccination. We found that 22% of patients receiving dialysis had suboptimal responses to vaccination, irrespective of whether or not they had evidence of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Poorer health status and longer duration of end-stage kidney disease increased likelihood of suboptimal response. Ongoing vigilance for COVID19 in dialysis facilities and studies of modified vaccination dosing schedules will be critical to protecting patients receiving dialysis.

SARS-CoV-2 subgenomic RNA kinetics in longitudinal clinical samples (preprint)

BackgroundGiven the persistence of viral RNA in clinically recovered COVID-19 patients, subgenomic RNAs (sgRNA) have been reported as potential molecular viability markers for SARS-CoV-2. However, few data are available on their longitudinal kinetics, compared with genomic RNA (gRNA), in clinical samples. MethodsWe analyzed 536 samples from 205 patients with COVID-19 from placebo-controlled, outpatient trials of Peginterferon Lambda-1a (Lambda; n=177) and favipiravir (n=359). Nasal swabs were collected at three time points in the Lambda (Day 1, 4 and 6) and favipiravir (Day 1, 5, and 10) trials. N-gene gRNA and sgRNA were quantified by RT-qPCR. To investigate the decay kinetics in vitro, we measured gRNA and sgRNA in A549ACE2+ cells infected with SARS-CoV-2, following treatment with remdesivir or DMSO control. ResultsAt six days in the Lambda trial and ten days in the favipiravir trial, sgRNA remained detectable in 51.6% (32/62) and 49.5% (51/106) of the samples, respectively. Cycle threshold (Ct) values for gRNA and sgRNA were highly linearly correlated (Pearsons r=0.87) and the rate of increase did not differ significantly in Lambda (1.36 cycles/day vs 1.36 cycles/day; p = 0.97) or favipiravir (1.03 cycles/day vs 0.94 cycles/day; p=0.26) trials. From samples collected 15-21 days after symptom onset, sgRNA was detectable in 48.1% (40/83) of participants. In SARS-CoV-2 infected A549ACE2+ cells treated with remdesivir, the rate of Ct increase did not differ between gRNA and sgRNA. ConclusionsIn clinical samples and in vitro, sgRNA was highly correlated with gRNA and did not demonstrate different decay patterns to support its application as a viability marker. SummaryWe observed prolonged detection of subgenomic RNA in nasal swabs and equivalent decay rates to genomic RNA in both longitudinal nasal swabs and in remdesivir-treated A549ACE2+ cells infected with SARS-CoV-2. Taken together, these findings suggest that subgenomic RNA from SARS-CoV-2 is comparably stable to genomic RNA and that its detection is therefore not a more reliable indicator of replicating virus.

Post-vaccination SARS-CoV-2 infections and incidence of the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant among healthcare personnel at a northern California academic medical center (preprint)

BackgroundDistribution of mRNA-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to healthcare personnel (HCP) in the United States began in December 2020, with efficacy > 90%. However, breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated individuals have been reported. Meanwhile, multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have emerged worldwide, including the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant first described in California. Little is known about the real-world effectiveness of the mRNA-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines against novel variants including B.1.427/B.1.429. MethodsIn this quality improvement project, post-vaccine SARS-CoV-2 cases (PVSCs) were defined as individuals with positive SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) after receiving at least one dose of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Chart extraction of demographic and clinical information was performed, and available specimens meeting cycle threshold value criteria were tested for L452R, N501Y and E484K mutations by RT-PCR. ResultsFrom December 2020 to March 2021, 189 PVSCs were identified out of 22,729 healthcare personnel who received at least one dose of an mRNA-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccine. Of these, 114 (60.3%) occurred within 14 days of first vaccine dose (early post-vaccination), 49 (25.9%) within 14 days of the second vaccine dose (partially vaccinated), and 26 (13.8%) >14 days after the second dose (fully vaccinated). Of 115 samples available for mutation testing, 42 were positive for L452R alone, presumptive of B.1.427/B.1.429; three had N501Y mutation alone and none were found with E484K mutation. Though on univariate analysis partially- and fully-vaccinated PVSCs were more likely than early post-vaccination PVSCs to be infected with presumptive B.1.427/B.1.429, when adjusted for community prevalence of B.1.427/B.1.429 at the time of infection, partially- and fully-vaccinated PVSC did not have statistically significantly elevated risk ratios for infection with this variant (RR 1.40, 95% CI 0.81-2.43 and RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.59-2.16, respectively). ConclusionsThe great majority of PVSCs occurred prior to the expected onset of full, vaccine-derived immunity. Although the B.1.427/B.1.429 variant did not represent a significantly higher proportion of PVSCs than expected, numbers were small and there was a trend towards higher representation in the partially- and fully-vaccinated subset. Continued infection control measures in the workplace and in the community including social distancing and masking, particularly in the early days post-vaccination, as well as continued variant surveillance in PVSCs, is imperative in order to anticipate and control future surges of infection.

SARS-COV-2 antibody prevalence in patients on dialysis in the US in January 2021 (preprint)

Background: To estimate seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the US, the country with largest absolute numbers of COVID19 cases and deaths in the world, we conducted a cross-sectional assessment from a sample of patients receiving dialysis in January 2021. Methods: We tested remainder plasma of 21,424 patients receiving dialysis through the third-largest US dialysis organization, with facilities located nationwide. We used the Siemens spike protein receptor binding domain total antibody assay to estimate crude SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence, and then estimated seroprevalence for the US dialysis and adult population by standardizing by age, sex and region. We also compared January 2021 seroprevalence and case-detection rates to that from a similar subsample of patients receiving dialysis who had been tested in July 2020. Results: Patients in the sample were disproportionately from older age and minority race/ethnic groups. Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 was 18.9% (95% CI: 18.3-19.5%) in the sample, 18.7% (18.1-19.2%) standardized to the US dialysis population, and 21.3% (20.3-22.3%) standardized to the US adult population (range 15.3-20.8% in the Northeast and South respectively). Younger age groups (18-44 years), and persons self-identifying as Hispanic or living in Hispanic neighborhoods, and persons living in the poorest neighborhoods were among the subgroups with the highest seroprevalence (25.9% (24.1-27.8%), 25.1% (23.6-26.4%), 24.8% (23.2-26.5%) respectively). Compared to data from July 2020, we observed diminished variability in seroprevalence by geographic region and urban-rural status. Estimated case detection rate increased from 14% to 23% in July 2020 to January 2021. Conclusions: A year after the first case of SARS-CoV-2 infection was detected in the US, fewer than one in four adults have evidence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. Vaccine roll out to majority minority neighborhoods and poorer neighborhoods will be critical to disrupting the spread of infection.

Inflammatory but not respiratory symptoms associated with ongoing upper airway viral replication in outpatients with uncomplicated COVID-19 (preprint)

BackgroundThe vast majority of SARS-CoV-2 infections are uncomplicated and do not require hospitalization, but contribute to ongoing transmission. Our understanding of the clinical course of uncomplicated COVID-19 remains limited. MethodsWe detailed the natural history of uncomplicated COVID-19 among 120 outpatients enrolled in a randomized clinical trial of Peginterferon Lambda. We characterized symptom trajectory and clusters using exploratory factor analysis, assessed predictors of symptom resolution and cessation of oropharyngeal viral shedding using Cox proportional hazard models, and evaluated associations between symptoms and viral shedding using mixed effects linear models. ResultsHeadache, myalgias and chills peaked at day 4 after symptom onset; cough peaked on day 9. Two distinct symptom cluster trajectories were identified; one with mild, upper respiratory symptoms, and the other with more severe and prolonged inflammatory symptoms. The median time to symptom resolution from earliest symptom onset was 17 days (95% CI 14-18). Neither enrollment SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels (Hazard ratio [HR] 1.88, 95% CI 0.84-4.20) nor oropharyngeal viral load at enrollment (HR 1.01, 95% CI 0.98-1.05) were significantly associated with the time to symptom resolution. The median time to cessation of viral shedding was 10 days (95% CI 8-12), with higher SARS-CoV-2 IgG levels at enrollment associated with hastened resolution of viral shedding (HR 3.12, 95% CI 1.4-6.9, p=0.005). Myalgia, joint pains, and chills were associated with a significantly greater odds of oropharyngeal SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection. ConclusionsIn this outpatient cohort, inflammatory symptoms peaked early and were associated with ongoing SARS-CoV-2 replication. SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels were associated with more rapid viral shedding cessation, but not with time to symptom resolution. These findings have important implications for COVID-19 screening approaches and clinical trial design.

Shared B cell memory to coronaviruses and other pathogens varies in human age groups and tissues (preprint)

Vaccination and infection promote the formation, tissue distribution, and clonal evolution of B cells encoding humoral immune memory. We evaluated convergent antigen-specific antibody genes of similar sequences shared between individuals in pediatric and adult blood, and deceased organ donor tissues. B cell memory varied for different pathogens. Polysaccharide antigen-specific clones were not exclusive to the spleen. Adults convergent clones often express mutated IgM or IgD in blood and are class-switched in lymphoid tissues; in contrast, children have abundant class-switched convergent clones in blood. Consistent with serological reports, pre-pandemic children had class-switched convergent clones to SARS-CoV-2, enriched in cross-reactive clones for seasonal coronaviruses, while adults showed few such clones in blood or lymphoid tissues. These results extend age-related and anatomical mapping of human humoral pathogen-specific immunity. One Sentence SummaryChildren have elevated frequencies of pathogen-specific class-switched memory B cells, including SARS-CoV-2-binding clones.

A repurposed, blood gene signature is associated with poor outcomes in SARS-CoV-2 (preprint)

Poor outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection are difficult to predict. Survivors may develop pulmonary fibrosis. We previously identified a 52-gene signature in peripheral blood, predictive of mortality in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis. In this study, we analyzed this signature in SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals and identified genomic risk profiles with significant differences in outcomes. Analysis of single cell expression data shows that monocytes, red blood cells, neutrophils and dendritic cells are the cellular source of the high risk gene signature.

The multidisciplinary nature of COVID-19 research (preprint)

Objective: We analyzed the scientific output after COVID-19 and contrasted it with studies published in the aftermath of seven epidemics/pandemics: Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Influenza A virus H5N1 and Influenza A virus H1N1 human infections, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Ebola virus disease, Zika virus disease, and Dengue. Design/Methodology/Approach: We examined bibliometric measures for COVID-19 and the rest of studied epidemics/pandemics. Data were extracted from Web of Science, using its journal classification scheme as a proxy to quantify the multidisciplinary coverage of scientific output. We proposed a novel Thematic Dispersion Index (TDI) for the analysis of pandemic early stages. Results/Discussion: The literature on the seven epidemics/pandemics before COVID-19 has shown explosive growth of the scientific production and continuous impact during the first three years following each emergence or re-emergence of the specific infectious disease. A subsequent decline was observed with the progressive control of each health emergency. We observed an unprecedented growth in COVID-19 scientific production. TDI measured for COVID-19 (29,4) in just six months, was higher than TDI of the rest (7,5 to 21) during the first three years after epidemic initiation. Conclusions: COVID-19 literature showed the broadest subject coverage, which is clearly a consecuence of its social, economic, and political impact. The proposed indicator (TDI), allowed the study of multidisciplinarity, differentiating the thematic complexity of COVID-19 from the previous seven epidemics/pandemics. Originality/Value: The multidisciplinary nature and thematic complexity of COVID-19 research were successfully analyzed through a scientometric perspective.

Peginterferon Lambda-1a for treatment of outpatients with uncomplicated COVID-19: a randomized placebo-controlled trial (preprint)

Type III interferons have been touted as promising therapeutics in outpatients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We conducted a randomized placebo-controlled trial in 120 patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 to determine whether a single, 180 mcg subcutaneous dose of Peginterferon Lambda-1a (Lambda) could shorten the duration of viral shedding (primary endpoint) or symptoms (secondary endpoint, NCT04331899). In both the 60 patients receiving Lambda and the 60 receiving placebo, the median time to cessation of viral shedding was 7 days (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56 to 1.19). Symptoms resolved in 8 and 9 days in Lambda and placebo, respectively (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.64 to 1.39). At enrollment; 41% of subjects were SARS-CoV-2 IgG seropositive; compared to placebo, lambda tended to delay shedding cessation in seronegatives (aHR 0.66, 95% CI 0.39-1.10) and to hasten shedding cessation in seropositives (aHR 1.58, 95% CI 0.88-2.86; p for interaction = 0.03). Liver transaminase elevations were more common in the Lambda vs. placebo arm (15/60 vs 5/60; p = 0.027). In this study, a single dose of subcutaneous Peginterferon Lambda-1a neither shortened the duration of SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding nor improved symptoms in outpatients with uncomplicated COVID-19.